On People, Political Parties, Leadership and Winning elections in Nigeria

There are well respected experts, Ayisha Osori and co. I am an outsider. Outsiders are either badly wrong or “badly” right.

How are elections won anywhere in the world? It’s the numbers. Person A has more votes than person B and the winner is announced. In some cases, Person B is announced anyway but that’s not the point. At the backend, in Nigeria for example, there’s lots of politicking — candidates have to be known in their wards, they have to win primaries, etc.

I have always heard that political parties win elections in Nigeria, not people. I agree but it is maybe a combination — great candidate, good party structure. There’s an example too, the Accord party in Mushin. It was a victory of a candidate over an established party.

Now, I believe that the PDP and APC are not any different and yes, I move between idealism and realism. In both worlds, the two parties are the same. I don’t think a new traditional party will beat them in states like Lagos or at the Presidency. I’m making a case for inspiring and competent candidates who can pull 5 million votes in say, Lagos state.

A Femi Falana & Banky W ticket is my dream ticket for Lagos but will it happen?

The #Endsars movement taught us at least one lesson — people are thirsty for real leadership, tired of old wine and will line up behind movements they trust. I know you need structure at every ward. I’m saying the only way a different group or party will build that in 2 years is by convincing inspiring candidates with wide appeal.

A Femi Falana + Banky W ticket in Lagos ticks this box (I think GRV is interesting as deputy also but I doubt you can change Lagos from the PDP anymore). Poor, rich, young, old, we can see a Stacey Abram + Obama + Biden effect in Lagos for example. It is a combination of history of competence, wide appeal, many small donations and a potential #Endsars “volunteer leaders” popping up in every single ward in Lagos that’ll make it happen. The good thing is they wont see it coming till it is too late. 5 million votes.

I end with the argument that Nigeria won’t ever change and that we have bad leaders because most citizens are themselves “bad”. I get it. I don’t think the quick solution is to make Nigerians “good” though even though I’m committed to training future leaders. I think we have to find inspiring & competent candidates and help the electorate select them. Competency and character flows down (not up) in the end. It truly does, with consistent performance.

In Nigeria, good people seem to enjoy being deputies to “strong” candidates and helping humanity on the sidelines. It’s like Kings walking and servants riding on horses. Anyway, if anyone can convince Mr Femi Falana to run in Lagos, call me. First volunteer. His impact will be more. I am sure the Accord party won’t say no to this combination either or that’s my idealistic self talking?

Elections have consequences. Winners determine the consequences. People determine the winners. Most people are tired so few people determine winners. Only inspiring/inspired candidates will get more people back on the streets.

Sidenotes:

1. I’ll be the first to say institutions matter. Yes! But we have to elect the people who we believe have our interests at heart. They’ll be the ones who’ll speed up the process of strengthening institutions with a lot of support from citizens. Everything falls on leadership. The formula is good proven people + institutions.
2. Choosing inspiring candidates is for me the first step. Sensitization, mobilization, fundraising, voting and protecting votes will ride on the quality of candidates progressives choose to support.
3. It is easier to rig elections when active participation is very low. Active participation includes voting and protecting votes.
4. Change is gradual. I think progressives should focus their energies on one state, show workings before trying to bring change to Nigeria. Just win one state. Nigerians need to see an example of good governance. They don’t get it. This will mean dropping selfish ambitions. In Nigeria today, State governors have the power and legal backing to make real change happen (Local gov have power on paper, Federal gov is too big for a new wave).
5. Femi Falana+BankyW is an example. What I’m certain of is that we don’t need rocket scientists. We just need leaders truly elected by the people (not selected by a few) who then select the best possible team/cabinet and back them with all the political will and support they need to make things happen (e.g Obasanjo). Obasanjo had his faults but his team? Superb! I don’t think 2 million votes in Lagos for example represents the people. That’s why we need inspiring candidates.
6. I think some actors in the formation of the APC might have had good intentions in the beginning but strange bedfellows produce the bad results.. I fear that younger politicians are in denial when they want to start change from the big parties. I might be wrong. There are good people in the PDP too. I am sure
7. Please read Silence is Consent: Occupying the Office of the Citizen | THISDAYLIVE by Yemi Adamolekun.
8. Edit: Peter Obi.

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